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The 2024 NBA Finals tip off on Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET), with the Boston Celtics hosting the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Dallas’s Luka Doncic headline each team as young superstars looking to reach the pinnacle of accomplishment in their sport.
Let’s break down the matchup and make a prediction for Game 1.
Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 odds
- Spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-110), Celtics -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +200, Celtics -250
- Total: Over 215.5 (-115), Under 215.5 (-105)
Odds via BetMGM
Mavericks outlook
It was a slow start to the postseason for Doncic, who has dealt with multiple ailments, but he was masterful against the Timberwolves in the conference finals. He averaged 32.4 points per game on 47-43-85 shooting splits and contributed 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game.
For Dallas to have a chance in this series, he’ll need to replicate that production against an elite Boston defense, a task that won’t be easy.
Kyrie Irving’s revenge narrative will be discussed ad nauseam after his tenure with the Celtics ended on a sour note. Irving’s matchup against an excellent defensive backcourt featuring Jrue Holiday and Derrick White will be difficult to navigate.
I’d consider taking him under 23.5 points in Game 1, as he’s failed to clear that number in 11 of 17 playoff games (65%) and four of five games (80%) against Boston dating to December 2022.
Celtics outlook
Tatum, the current odds-on favorite to win the Finals MVP award, is poised to join an elite company if he can win his first championship at age 26. I
’m fascinated to see how Dallas defends him in this series with trade deadline acquisition P.J. Washington likely getting the first call. That would likely put Derrick Jones Jr. on Jaylen Brown, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
Kristaps Porzingis might be Boston’s biggest X-factor in this series. The Latvian big man has benefitted from the Celtics’ dominant series wins as he’s had time to recover from his calf injury. The former Maverick provides elite rim protection and 3-point shooting, which is crucial for Boston’s offensive spacing.
His 3-points made prop of 1.5 is worth a look in Game 1 as he’s gone over that number in 21 of 30 home games (70%) this season.
Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 best bets
The Celtics undoubtedly benefitted from some good fortune on their way to the Finals, beating the Heat, Cavaliers and Pacers, all of whom suffered ailments to their top players. The Mavericks, meanwhile, have had a much more challenging path to this point, fending off the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards in the last two rounds.
Still, we can’t discount the Celtics’ historically dominant regular season. They finished 64-18 and had the best offensive rating (123.2) in NBA history. Boston is listed at -225 to win the series, and since 1988, teams -200 or higher to win the NBA Finals are 22-3 overall. History tells us we should respect this Celtics team.
Public money is all over the Mavericks in Game 1, with 78% of the handle on Dallas, per Action Network. However, respected money has shifted the line from Boston -5.5 to -6.5. Per Action Network’s Evan Abrams, favorites in Game 1 of the Finals have been 21-9 against the spread (ATS) over the last 30 years and 16-3 ATS since 2005.
I like the Celtics to make a statement in Game 1, and I’ll take them -6.5 on the spread. In addition, I’m playing the two props on Irving and Porzingis.
Game 1 betting card
- Kyrie Irving under 23.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
- Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 3-pointers (-155 at Caesars)
- Celtics -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
