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In the eyes of many baseball fans, the crown jewel of MLB All-Star Week isn’t the game itself; it’s the Home Run Derby, which takes place a day before.
Monday is officially baseball’s “derby day,” and eight sluggers are ready to tackle a revamped format in pursuit of longball glory.
Let’s take a look at the field and find some betting value in this year’s derby, which begins at 8 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington Texas.
What’s new this year?
This year’s derby has a new format. The first round will not feature head-to-head matchups. Instead, each hitter will be given a chance to hit as many home runs as possible, and the top four contestants will move on to the semifinals where the head-to-head component will return. Hitters will be seeded based on how many home runs they hit in the first round.
But the hitters’ time at the plate will be slightly different as well. The first round and the semifinals are still three minutes long and the final round is two minutes, but a hitter can only see as many as 40 pitches in those first two rounds or 27 in the final. If he sees that many before the time is up, the round will end for him.
Bonus time is also a bit different. Instead of 30 seconds of swinging time after the main round is over, hitters get bonus pitches until they record three “outs” or any swing that is not a home run. They can also earn a fourth out by hitting a home run of 425 feet or more.
Now that we have the format down, let’s get into some odds and picks.
2024 Home Run Derby odds
- Pete Alonso (+340)
- Marcell Ozuna (+400)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+475)
- Adolis Garcia (+500)
- Gunnar Henderson (+500)
- Teoscar Hernandez (+950)
- Jose Ramirez (+1300)
- Alex Bohm (+1600)
Odds via DraftKings
Who’s going to win?
We’ve learned quite a few things from past derbies. One is that a player’s frame that can withstand the intensity of multiple timed rounds is key. That’s going to be an issue for hitters like Hernandez, who has some pop but is just 180 pounds at 6-foot-2.
We also know that experience can matter, especially under the timed format. Witt and Henderson are rising stars, but unless you have outrageous raw power like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, a first trip can be quite daunting.
Lastly, it’s not necessary to be having a historic home run-hitting season. Alonso, for instance, was crushing the ball before his first derby win, but much less so ahead of his second.
Garcia isn’t on fire right now, but he has shown his raw power plenty of times, perhaps most notably in the 2023 postseason as he bludgeoned the defending champion Astros out of the picture before picking up an injury in the World Series. He participated in last year’s derby and didn’t do well, but now he has experience and will be in his home ballpark this year.
Garcia hasn’t confirmed his derby pitcher yet, but he used a Rangers coach last year, so like most competitors in this year’s field, he’s most likely going to make a logical choice, not an emotional one. At 6-1 and over 200 pounds, he’s definitely built to last through this strenuous event and should be able to send plenty of balls flying into the Texas night.
Best bet: Adolis Garcia (+500)
Prop bets to target
A great way to hedge a bet on Garcia is to wager on the National League at -105. To be clear, this is not a bet on the total number of home runs hit by each league – a bet that is separately available – but a wager that one of the four NL sluggers will win the event.
It’s a strong NL field this year. Ozuna is swinging one of the sport’s hottest bats this year, Alonso is a multi-time winner, Hernandez is nearly unstoppable when he gets into a groove, and Bohm has some solid contact metrics.
With that being said, we are going to project Ramirez to take down Bohm in the first round. The Cleveland slugger can choose which side of the plate to hit from, or even switch midway through — a tactic we saw last year from Adley Rutschman, who came up a home run short of winning his matchup and had the third-highest total of the opening round. Ramirez has also been here before; he should have no issue improving upon his last performance, especially relative to Bohm, who has hit just 11 homers this year, easily the lowest total of anyone in the field, and less than half of Ramirez’s 23.
Lastly, we’re doubling down on Garcia and picking him to out-slug Witt in the first round. Witt, the Royals’ phenom, is having a fantastic year but is more of a gap-power type of hitter. And while Garcia is slumping, he has the potential to display more pure power, owns the experience edge and gets to hit in his home stadium.
Best prop bets to consider
- National League to win (-105)
- Jose Ramirez to beat Alec Bohm in the first round (-125)
- Adolis Garcia to beat Bobby Witt Jr. in the first round (+120)
