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The NBA Finals matchup is set: The Mavericks will take on the Celtics, with Game 1 to be played in Boston next Thursday.
The Celtics have been in this situation before, losing to the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals.
However, this will be a new experience for most players on the Mavericks, save Kyrie Irving, who won a championship with the Cavaliers in 2016.
NBA Finals: Mavericks vs. Celtics prediction
The Importance of Porzingis
By sweeping the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Boston Celtics helped buy Kristaps Porzingis more time to heal from the calf injury that has kept him out of most of the playoffs.
During their second-round series against the Pacers, Boston had an issue protecting the rim and defending the interior. In fact, the C’s gave up an eye-opening 68 points in the paint in Game 3; players like Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam and T.J. McConnell got the looks they wanted from within 15 feet of the basket.
Porzingis is one of the best rim protectors and drop-coverage bigs in the NBA, so his presence will elevate this C’s team to another level. He can also step out and hit the 3-pointer and has been Boston’s most efficient post-up player this season.
Ultimately, Porzingis gives the Celtics adequate bench depth, with Al Horford relegated to his usual role. His health in this series will be paramount for this team to win a championship.
Celtics in clutch time
The Celtics have been insanely impressive in clutch time, hitting big shot after big shot and not getting rattled when staring down a deficit.
Per NBC Sports, they have an offensive rating of 129.3 and a defensive rating of 85.4 for a mind-bogglingly efficient net rating of +43.9 in those clutch minutes (final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points), outscoring opponents 53-35.
Further, Boston outscored Indiana 15-4 in the final 3 minutes of Game 3 to win and 15-4 in the final 5:50 of Game 4. Both of those games were on the road, too. That focus in closing games gives us confidence to back the C’s in the Finals, as they have been elite on the road, winning all six of their games away from T.D. Garden.
The Mavericks have two elite closers in Luka Doncic and Irving, but Boston’s defensive options are better than Dallas’ and can force them into tough shots. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White can all contest Doncic and Irving.
Dallas should be able to squeak out a few games, but they will ultimately run out of gas.
Pick: Celtics win series 4-2 (+475 at DraftKings)
