The New York Yankees’ worst nightmare has come true, though there were certainly signs that foreshadowed their most devastating injury yet this spring.
Their ace, Gerrit Cole, will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday after seeking multiple opinions on his right elbow. That means the 34-year-old will miss the entire 2025 season and then some.
“RHP Gerrit Cole was seen earlier today at Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles by Dr. Neal ElAttrache and is now scheduled to undergo ‘Tommy John’ surgery tomorrow,” the Yankees said in a statement on Monday. “Dr. ElAttrache will perform the surgery. Further updates will occur post-surgery.”
Cole’s elbow began acting up following his spring training start against the Twins last Thursday. His fastball reached 97.6 mph and averaged 95.7 mph, but he allowed six earned runs and two homers over 2.2 innings before soreness set in at home.
News that Cole needed an MRI broke Friday night, and the 2023 Cy Young winner added that he was “concerned” but hopeful on Saturday morning with initial imaging already distributed.
On Sunday, Brian Cashman told Newsday’s David Lennon that he was “prepared for the worst” but waiting to see how things played out as Cole and the Yankees sought additional opinions. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden reported that Tommy John surgery had already been recommended later that night, and Cole went to Los Angeles for a visit with ElAttrache, a renowned surgeon, on Monday.
This is the second straight season that Cole’s elbow has cost him significant time, though he was able to return last season after being diagnosed with elbow inflammation midway through spring training. Cole didn’t make his 2024 debut until June 19, which limited him to 17 regular season starts.
Upon his return, Cole lacked velocity and command as he struggled with the longball at times. However, he ended the season with a 3.41 ERA over 95 innings before posting a 2.17 ERA over five postseason starts.
One of those playoff starts, Game 1 of the World Series, saw Cole removed after 88 pitches despite allowing just one run over six innings. When asked about the decision the next day, Aaron Boone repeatedly said Cole was “done.”
When asked why, Boone replied, “You’ll just have to take my word for it.” The manager added that Cole was healthy, and he threw 108 pitches over 6.2 innings in Game 5. Cole’s failure to cover first base contributed to a sloppy fifth inning for the Yankees and a series-ending win for the Dodgers that night.
A few days later, Cole opted out of the remaining four years and $144 million on his contract. The Yankees could have nullified Cole’s opt out by giving him an additional year for $36 million, but they chose not to. They didn’t have much incentive to do so following Cole’s injury-shortened season.
Rather than test free agency, Cole then reversed his decision to opt out, locking himself in for the four years at $144 million.
When Cole reported to camp this spring, he said his intention was to always stay put. He also said that he began throwing earlier over the winter than in years past in order to “keep the arm live.” Cole’s 2024 injury, midseason ramp-up and conversations with older friends in the game influenced that decision.
Despite the change, Cole is now looking at a lost season. The Yankees, meanwhile, are down two starters, as Luis Gil is out with a high-grade lat strain and isn’t expected back until the summer.
Gil’s absence opened a rotation spot for Marcus Stroman, who entered camp as the odd man out following an offseason of trade rumors. Will Warren and Carlos Carrasco are among the internal favorites to take the spot vacated by Cole, though the Yankees could explore the trade market or a slim, unexciting list of remaining free agents.
Max Fried, meanwhile, is now positioned as the Yankees’ No. 1 starter after inking an eight-year, $218 million contract over the winter. The former Brave was supposed to be the Robin to Cole’s Batman — or perhaps a precautionary insurance plan following the events described above — as Fried became the face of the Yankees’ run-prevention pivot after losing Juan Soto to the Mets.
Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are the other set members of a Yankees rotation that now appears much more vulnerable than when camp began.
The rotation is not the Yankees’ only concern, as their Soto-less lineup already had question marks before Giancarlo Stanton reported to camp with lingering tennis elbows. DJ LeMahieu, among the Yankees’ less-than-ideal third base options entering the spring, is also dealing with a calf strain. The Bombers’ bullpen depth, meanwhile, has been threatened by a handful of injuries.
