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From top-to-bottom, the National League Central still features lots of intrigue coming out of the All-Star break. Thanks to the third wild-card spot, none of the five teams are entirely out of the playoff mix, and the Cardinals have added some intrigue by putting some pressure on the Brewers up top, thanks to a strong push throughout June and July.
The Brewers are -260 (72.2% implied probability) favorites to win the division, per bet365, while the Cardinals are priced at +280. FanGraphs is slightly lower on the Brewers’ chances in projecting them to win the division 69.5% of the time while offering the Cardinals a 17.2% chance at the division title. PECOTA also is low on the Brewers relative to market, as it projects them to win the division 68.6% of the time.
The Cardinals do have six more matchups against the Brewers this season, which does help to crack the door open for a comeback. However, they also have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in baseball based on opposing teams’ combined win percentage of .512.
It’s hard to pick out many flaws with the Brewers’ initial 97 games though, as they have played fundamentally sound in all areas and even underachieved their expected W/L of 57-40. Behind ace Freddy Peralta is Colin Rea, which is concerning, but it also seems quite likely the Brewers will deal for a starter before the trade deadline, while the bullpen is also set to benefit from the return of Devin Williams.
Despite the Brewers’ legitimacy, it’s tough to think there’s an edge laying -260 on them to win the division. If you do believe in Milwaukee, one way to get at them could be backing Pat Murphy to win the NL Manager of the Year award (+100, DraftKings).
The Brewers were as high as +1000 to win the division prior to the season and were the fourth favorite behind the Cardinals, Cubs and Reds.
Milwaukee’s overachievement is why Murphy is currently favored over Rob Thomson of the Phillies, despite the fact that Philadelphia owns the best record in baseball at 62-34.
The general consensus seems to be that Murphy is worthy of being an odds-on favorite, and that if Milwaukee hangs on to the division, Philadelphia would need to push well past the 100-win mark for Thomson to take home the award. Philadelphia has the eighth-hardest remaining schedule, while the Brewers own the 17th-toughest. It seems accurate to say that if the two teams’ records remain somewhat comparable, Murphy is a safe bet in this market and worthy of being a larger favorite than +100.
Beyond that it is tough to find much value remaining in the division. Based on FanGraphs and PECOTA’s projections, none of the Cubs, Pirates or Reds are worthy of a bet to make the playoffs.
Odds aside, the Cubs are the one team that looks interesting based upon the higher upside of the roster at full health, but it still seems they are getting a little too much credit for their preseason expectations to be priced at just +450 to make the playoffs.
Best bet: Pat Murphy to win NL Manager of the Year (+100, DraftKings)