While Lake and Porter counties have seen high voter turnout throughout the early in-person voting period, political and history experts said the presidential election is tight nationwide and predict former president Donald Trump will win in Indiana.
Both Lake and Porter counties have reported higher early in-person numbers compared to the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, officials said. As of Saturday, each county is under by less than 10,000 ballots cast early in person compared to the 2020 election, which was held amid the COVID-19 pandemic, officials said.
Saturday marked the first weekend day of early in-person voting throughout Indiana. In Lake County, 3,874 people cast their ballots and in Porter County 1,858 people cast their ballots on Saturday, according to local officials.
In Lake County, as of Saturday, 53,655 people have cast their ballots early in person, said Michelle Fajman, director of the Lake County Board of Elections and Registration.
Comparatively, with 10 days out to the election, Lake County saw 9,795 voters cast a ballot early in-person in 2008 and 13,783 voters cast a ballot early in-person in 2012, Fajman said.
In 2016, with 10 days left before the election, Lake County reported 25,358 voters cast a ballot early in-person, Fajman said. In 2020, with 10 days left before the election, Lake County reported 62,940 voters cast a ballot early in-person, she said.
“I think it’s exciting. People are excited about this election,” Fajman said.
In Porter County, as of Saturday, 28,028 people have cast a ballot early in person, said Tara Graf, assistant director of Porter County Elections and Registration.
During the 2020 election, 36,870 people cast a ballot early in person and 13,042 voters sent in an absentee ballot, Graf said. During the 2016 election, 17,382 people cast a ballot early in person and 3,166 voters sent in an absentee ballot, she said.
During the 2012 election, 11,812 voters voted early in person and 2,874 sent in their ballots via mail, Graf said. During the 2008 election, 12,264 voters voted early in person and 2,685 sent in their ballots via mail, she said.
When looking at the data over the years, Graf said it’s clear that voters are embracing early in person voting as their voting plan.
“It’s our civic duty. We have the privilege of having different ways to cast a ballot,” Graf said. “There’s no good excuse not to.”
Jack Bloom, professor of sociology, history and minority studies at Indiana University Northwest, said since World War II Indiana has voted for a Democratic president two times: Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Barack Obama in 2008.
While Indiana has elected Democrats at the state level in the past, those candidates would be best described as conservative Democrats, like former governors Frank O’Bannon and Evan Bayh, said Marjorie Hershey, Indiana University Bloomington professor emeritus of political science.
Over the last 20 years, Indiana has seen a Republican supermajority in the state and consistent votes for Republican candidates, Hershey said. But, in 2008, Indiana voted for Obama, which followed the national trend of Obama’s popularity in that election, she said.
After Obama won, the Tea Party and the populist ascendancy began to take hold within the Republican Party, which went on to pave the way for former president Donald Trump, Hershey said.
While Indiana Democratic voters and candidates have compared the energy around this election to 2008, Hershey said that year was an exception in Indiana and that all polls indicate it’s a tight race nationwide.
“There is simply no way of predicting who is going to win in November,” Hershey said. “2008 was an outlier. It’s been consistently a Republican state since that time.”
Bloom said Democrats likely feel like this election is similar to 2008 because after Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t seek reelection and Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy, the Democratic party was energized.
“I think people have been excited by Harris because she has the potential to win,” Bloom said. “I don’t know that people are particularly excited about Harris because there’s this qualification or that qualification. But she has a chance to win, and I suspect that’s what it’s about.”
But, Democratic voters and candidates may feel that the current election has had similar energy to that of 2008, particularly after Harris announced her candidacy for president, because they are likely speaking to people who share similar views, Hershey said.
“It probably continues to stem from their belief that the Democrats’ hopes were resurrected by Kamala Harris,” Hershey said. “Most people have friends who think the way they do. So it’s not surprising that you get groups of people who are Trump supporters who think that it’s obvious that the entire country favors Trump and that there is every reason why they should, and Harris supporters who say that it’s obvious that the entire country favors Harris and that there is reason why they should.”
While it’s a tight race nationwide, Bloom said it’s clear Trump will win Indiana given the state’s Republican supermajority. The election will come down to the seven swing states, he said.
“Today, virtually everybody in the (state) government is Republican. There’s no reason to think that Indiana is going to go for Harris. It’s not going to happen,” Bloom said. “It’s really only those so called swing states where we don’t know what’s going to happen and that’s where everything is going to be decided.”
There’s an extreme likelihood that Trump will win Indiana, as he did in the two other elections he was on the ballot, Hershey said. But, with that in mind, Hershey said everyone needs to make sure to cast their ballot this election, she said.
“The only way that you get the people you want elected is to make sure that you vote and that everybody you can contact votes,” Hershey said. “I would certainly urge people to go ahead and express their views, whether they are in the majority or the minority, because if there is a lesser than usual Republican vote in Indiana, that communicates a message to elected officials who are Republicans that maybe they don’t have as clear sailing as they think they do.”
Early voting goes through noon on the Monday before Election Day with 11 polling locations in Lake County and seven polling locations in Porter County.
For information on times and locations, check out https://www.porterco.org/1111/Early-Voting in Porter County and https://tinyurl.com/4s34d8a8 in Lake County.
