Odds, prediction for when White Sox will break losing streak?

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Having lost an incredible 20 straight games, the White Sox head into their three-game series against Oakland this week on the verge of MLB history.

The longest losing streak in the modern era is 23 games (1961 Phillies), which means if the White Sox are swept by the Athletics, they would tie the record.

Making things more interesting is that if the A’s do sweep the White Sox, the potential record-breaking game could come against the cross-town Cubs on Thursday.

Sportsbooks have listed odds for the White Sox’s next win, with Monday’s series opener against the A’s the most likely game for it to happen.

Next White Sox win odds

  • Aug. 5: at Athletics (+155)
  • Aug. 6: at Athletics (+280)
  • Aug. 7: at Athletics (+500)
  • Aug. 9: vs. Cubs (+1200)
  • Aug. 10: vs. Cubs (+1200)
  • Aug. 12: vs. Yankees (+1400)
  • Aug. 13: vs. Yankees (+1400)
  • Aug. 14: vs. Yankees (+1600)
  • White Sox will not win any games before Aug. 15 (+1400)

Odds via FanDuel

Bad-news Sox

White Sox supporters might not agree, but the thought of a game Friday with the record on the line sounds pretty exciting. Based on expected betting odds it is still less likely than not we get to that point, though that seems hard to believe looking at the statistics from the losing streak.

The White Sox have lost by an average of 4.15 runs during the losing streak and have seen opponents cover the run line in 14 of the 20 games. They have pitched to an ERA of 6.18, with an xFIP of 5.40, which ranks last in MLB as you might expect. They hold a wRC+ of 55 in that span and have struck out 27.3% of the time.

Oddsmakers have had a hard time catching up to the White Sox’s historically bad play. A $100 bettor would be up $2,284 betting against Chicago in every game this season on the moneyline (87-27) and $1,622 on the run line (66-48). Based on Chicago’s .307 win percentage, a breakeven betting line for all the White Sox games this season would be +226.

When will the losing streak end?

The White Sox are currently +155 to win on Monday as southpaw Ky Bush makes his MLB debut against J.P. Sears. It does not look like a long enough number to back Chicago to snap its 20-game losing streak.

While the Athletics sound like a good matchup for Bush in his MLB debut, they have been the best team in MLB against left-handed pitching for a fairly lengthy sample. Since June 1, Oakland holds a top-ranked wRC+ 164 versus lefties, and a top-ranked slug rate of .564.

Backing the skid to end Tuesday night at +280 could be worth a look, as the White Sox should have a reasonable chance to win with Johnathan Cannon on the mound to face Ross Stripling.

Stripling holds a 5.67 ERA and 4.72 xFIP this season, and has pitched to a 5.82 xFIP since returning from injury. Cannon holds a Pitching+ of 100 and an xFIP of 4.51, and looks to be a superior starter at this point.

Oakland obviously holds a superior lineup and bullpen, but Tuesday should still provide Chicago a far better chance than average to win a game, especially if Garrett Crochet isn’t going to be stretched deep into his next start again.

FanDuel offers the White Sox a 14/1 chance of not winning any of their next eight games, which sounds kind of interesting, but would likely offer a far lesser payout than a bettor simply rolling the money over themselves, unless oddsmakers start to really widen the prices. Even if White Sox opponents average -200 on the moneyline over those eight games, that would pay out just past +1700.

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