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The Oilers, who kept their season alive with a commanding 8-1 win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, will look to stave off elimination in a tougher spot as underdogs on Tuesday night in Florida. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the opportunity to secure the franchise’s first Stanley Cup on home ice, but they will need to shore up their defensive game after an ugly loss.
Can the Oilers’ offense carry momentum from Game 4 into Tuesday night’s matchup, and have they shaken the confidence of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in any fashion?
Let’s take a look at Game 5 and offer a best bet.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 odds
- Moneyline: Oilers +120, Panthers -145
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-230), Panthers -1.5 (+188)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-105), Under 5.5 (-115)
Odds via BetMGM
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 prediction
Edmonton had been generating chances at a high rate in the series before Game 4 but had not scored many when it counted due to a combination of elite goaltending by Bobrovsky and a lack of finishing.
The Oilers own a 51.96% expected goal share in the first four games of the series, and have generated 29.85 shots per 60. Expected goals data tracks the location of a shot but misses other intricacies that help to fully encapsulate the true danger.
Many of the Oilers’ shots in Games 1-3 were pressured and not necessarily complete breakdowns. That wasn’t the case in Game 4, as it was clear Bobrovsky was completely left out to dry. So while it could be argued the Oilers are unlucky to be down 3-1, Game 1 was the only game where the Panthers played even close to as bad defensively as Game 4.
It’s not as if the Oilers found some book on how to score on Bobrovsky in Game 4. Florida played it’s worst defensive game of the season, and Bobrovsky was a casualty to a lethal Oilers offense getting too many high-quality looks. It seems likely the Panthers will clean up their defensive game in this spot as they have rightfully earned their reputation as the league’s best defensive team.
The Oilers’ defensive play has been strong overall this postseason and has been respectable in this series. Stuart Skinner has done well so far in net and he was sharp when needed in Game 4.
While Edmonton has allowed a low quantity of chances at even strength in this series, it has still offered up critical breakdowns in the worst possible areas. If the Oilers can make simple plays and avoid disastrous mistakes below the goal line, the Panthers’ even-strength attack could look fairly subdued again.
Keeping the Panthers’ attack in check looks to be an easier task right now because Matthew Tkachuk has looked non-threatening offensively in this series, and he could be playing through a fairly notable injury.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 best bet
In the NHL playoffs, the later games of series’ have consistently become tighter checking and featured lower totals. This is another good chance to bet into that trend as both teams will look to settle in without making any mistakes.
At -120 there is value betting the first-period to go under 1.5 total goals.
Best bet: First-period under 1.5 (-120, bet365)
