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The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) have cooled off a bit after their hot start to the season, but they still own the best record in the Major Leagues.
On Tuesday, they’ll begin a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs, who are in a full tailspin after an offseason of high expectations.
Rather than building on a promising second half of 2023, they’re sitting last in the NL Central, 11 games behind Milwaukee in a division many believed they could win.
Cubs vs. Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +108 | Cubs -126
- Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (+182) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
- Total: Over 9.5 runs: +100 | Under 9.5 runs: -122
Odds via FanDuel
Cubs vs. Phillies prediction
The first pitching matchup of this midweek series is an interesting one. Chicago’s Hayden Wesneski is slated to make his fifth start of the year, as he’s mostly been used as a relief arm in what has been a solid start to the season for him.
He’ll go up against Michael Mercado, who tossed a clean inning in his MLB debut last week at Detroit. That’s the young righty’s entire resume in the big leagues, so while he’ll be dealing with the pressure of his first start, the Cubs will be tasked with figuring out a pitcher whose book is not out yet.
Chicago’s offense is league average against right-handed pitching, although overall the lineup has taken a dip over the past couple of months.
After Mercado, the Cubs will be facing a tough bullpen, which has continued its promising progression from last season and could be asked to eat a lot of innings depending on what Rob Thomson hopes to get out of his young starting arm.
Mercado was used as a starter in Triple-A so there won’t be a ton of adjustments needed by him in that regard and he shouldn’t have any pitch-count restrictions.
Cubs vs. Phillies pick
The Phillies are seventh in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but they’ll be without key lefties Kyle Schwarber and MVP candidate Bryce Harper on Tuesday.
It’s not clear how long Wesneski might be in the game, but with some of Philadelphia’s top contributors missing from the lineup, this is not the time to invest in scoring; the Phillies scored two runs in each of their first two games without Harper before a breakout on Sunday.
Pick: Under 9.5 total runs (-120 at BetMGM)