Surprisingly, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been beating the drums of war on the Korean peninsula much louder than North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Yoon has employed pointless rhetorical threats against Kim too often; he is overdoing it. His shortsighted actions do not achieve foreign policy goals, but they spark an unprecedented level of aggression from Kim.
For example, the relationship between Seoul and Pyongyang has been at its lowest point since Yoon partially canceled the 2018 Inter-Korean Military Agreement, which had contributed to the easing of military tensions and peaceful coexistence between the two Koreas.
When Kim launched a spy satellite last November, Yoon suspended a clause in the military agreement, which states a no-fly zone for fighter planes, reconnaissance aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles over the Military Demarcation Line. This suspension allows Yoon to take advantage of his country’s superior airpower and reconnaissance abilities.
Kim was furious and ordered the immediate nullification of the entire Military Agreement. Kim was even more furious when he learned that Yoon placed a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit ten days later.
How effective was the military agreement? According to South Korea’s 2022 Defense White Paper, the North did not attempt to infiltrate the South from 2019 to 2022, compared to the incidents that took place from 2010 to 2018. There were only two local provocations by the North in the same four years, compared to the hundreds of provocations that occurred in land, air, or sea from 2010 to 2018.
Yoon’s impulsive foreign policy has met with three negative reactions from Kim.
First, Kim officially ended a policy of seeking reconciliation and reunification with the South and instead ordered the revision of the Constitution to specify Seoul as an implacable foe that must be defeated with nuclear weapons.
Second, Kim brought in Pak Jong-Cheon, the most bellicose general in North Korea, who was appointed as his second-in-command, and a new group of hawkish military figures.
Third, Kim has ordered his military to resume the infiltration into the South and strategic and tactical provocations, which were paused upon the implementation of the military agreement.
Kim’s preparation for the worst-case scenario is leading the two Koreas closer to the brink of war.
Are military crashes between Yoon and Kim imminent? Fortunately, the probability is not remarkably high “at the moment” because South Korea and North Korea are currently serving as logistics bases for Ukraine and Russia, respectively. Both countries are shipping a large amount of artillery shells to the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine War, so they do not have enough artillery power to engage in a direct conflict.
Along with the resolve of the leader and the abundance of manpower, powerful artillery is essential to start and win a war. Artillery power enables military leaders to effectively suppress or neutralize the enemy or cause casualties, damage, and destruction. Yoon and Kim have been involved in tit-for-tat behavior for some time, but they are now more motivated to reap the profits from the arms trade that occurred during the war in Ukraine than engaging in a fight.
Nonetheless, if Russia wins, a critical moment will come before Yoon and Kim. The two leaders will have to decide whether they want to turn the profits from the arms trade into an all-out war. Kim will not start a war as long as Yoon does not push him too hard. Instead, he will want to celebrate his successes in the arms trade and the reestablished partnership with Russia.
The problem is that if Yoon loses the general election in April and ends up looking like a lame duck, he will be interested in pushing Kim over the edge. Yoon will not agree that, with half of his tenure remaining, he is unable to lead successfully. Yoon is likely to escalate military tensions and incite Kim to declare war out of a desire for political dominance. That is, Yoon is likely to turn to a diversionary war tactic to divert the public’s attention away from the discontent with his rule and bolster his political fortunes through a rally around the flag effect.
If Kim is drawn into Yoon’s war trap and his military fires on South Koreans, the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty, which establishes a foundation for American military participation in the conflict and the provision of military support, would draw U.S. forces into the fight. According to same report from 2022, the U.S. will send over 690,000 troops — 160 ships, 2,000 aircraft, and members of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps — to bolster South Korea’s defense.
To reduce the possibility of needlessly endangering American soldiers, the U.S. must curb Yoon’s self-centered behavior.
Seung-Whan Choi teaches Korean politics and international relations at the University of Illinois at Chicago. A retired Army officer, he is the author of four books and 54 journal articles.