South Korea just held its midterm elections. The outcome is a landslide victory for the opposition party. What are the reasons behind the surprise result? How will the new political landscape affect the conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, who stated, the elections would be an “evaluation of my two years of work”?
Unlike U.S. midterm elections, Korean midterm elections have rarely resulted in the loss of the president’s party in Congress. Only one of six past civilian presidents did not win a majority of the votes. That was Park Geun-hye who later was impeached and removed from office in 2017.
Regardless of partisanship, most South Koreans have supported the sitting president finishing their term with a majority rather than giving the opposition more power to veto the president’s directives. They have sought political stability and economic growth under a unified, democratic government.
This election many Koreans instead chose to punish incumbent President Yoon . This defeat was a popular uprising against Yoon’s authoritarianism, suppressing the voices of concerned citizens and censoring mass media. As per the Democracy Report 2024, South Korea has moved significantly toward autocracy as of 2023.
With its landslide victory, the progressive opposition has more power to pass legislation and appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the misconduct of Yoon and the numerous corruption scandals of the first lady. However, in the past, Yoon vetoed such legislation despite public uproar. More significantly, the opposition is better positioned to move forward with an impeachment motion against Yoon.
The opposition vowed to start impeaching Yoon immediately if it won big. The success of the Rebuilding Korea Party is telling since it was founded only a month ago and has already become the most popular third party; its primary campaign promise was to end Yoon’s presidency as quickly as possible.
The opposition currently lacks the estimated 20 votes needed to remove Yoon from office. However, given the country’s impeachment history, this number is insignificant. After Park lost in the midterm elections and became embroiled in political scandals, over 60 ruling party members joined the opposition to topple her presidency.
Despite suffering a defeat in the elections, Yoon will not give up without a fight. With over half of his term remaining, Yoon will likely argue that he does not require the public’s approval to continue governing. To stay in the game, Yoon may have to resort to more authoritarian measures to silence dissenting voices.
Yoon’s reliance on authoritarianism is due to his lack of experience with democratic politics. Before becoming the president, Yoon worked as a prosecutor , which trained him to see things in black or white. Yoon was skilled at sorting out the bad from the good guys within the legal boundaries.
However, Yoon was often merciless in pursuing legal action. For example, Yoon executed a search warrant over 100 times on the minister of justice, Cho Kuk. Yoon revealed that Cho was being charged because his daughter received a scholarship of nearly $5,000, which was intended as a bribe, although Cho had never used the money for himself. Yoon also prosecuted Cho’s wife and daughter.
By blowing the Cho family’s legal troubles out of proportion, Yoon established himself as a champion of justice and fairness. Back then, many Koreans were convinced that Yoon would lock up wrongdoers irrespective of their family ties, political influence and party affiliation. Yoon quit his prosecutorial job, ran for president, and won remarkably. In just one year, Yoon went from being a rebel prosecutor to the president of South Korea.
Upon his inauguration, Yoon’s popularity diminished rapidly. The primary reason for this was due to his increasing partisanship, where he would favor his conservative friends while trying to send his political enemies to prison.
Yoon pardoned many of his political allies. Ironically, it was Yoon who had prosecuted them in the name of restoring justice and fairness. For example, Yoon set free former conservative President Lee Myung-bak, convicted of bribery and embezzlement and sentenced to 17 years in prison and a fine of $10 million. However, Lee served only two years of his sentence, and most of his fine was never paid.
Yoon prevented the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate and prosecute Yoon’s wife, who allegedly made a profit through stock price manipulation. However, Yoon has hypocritically ordered the prosecutor’s office to charge the wife of Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the largest opposition party.
South Koreans have grown disillusioned with Yoon’s rule over the past two years, viewing him as hypocritical and incompetent. As a result, Yoon is now the least popular president in history, with a job approval rating of only 22%.
It is unlikely that Yoon will be able to bring back justice and fairness in his leadership after losing the midterm elections. This is because Yoon has never learned how to listen to the voices of citizens and the opposition. He has never been interested in politics as compromise and consensus when dealing with dissenters.
Moreover, Yoon does not know when and how leaders should leave their political office in a dignified, democratic way. If the power struggle between Yoon — the unruly, conservative president — and the opposition persists, it could lead to political turmoil in South Korea.
Even Kim Dae-jung, the most influential conservative journalist in Seoul, has warned that if Yoon is defeated during the midterm elections, “the President can no longer perform his duties. He must consider stepping down from his office to avoid chaos in the country.”
Seung-Whan Choi teaches Korean politics and International Relations at the University of Illinois at Chicago. A retired Army officer, he is the author of four books and 54 journal articles. His work has also appeared in popular media such as the Chicago Tribune, the Hill and the National Interest.