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Is football finally, at long last, coming home?
Once again, just as they were three years ago, England is just a match away from securing its first major honor since the 1966 World Cup, and their second overall. That’s right — the inventors of the sport have never won a European Championship and had not so much as made it to the tournament’s final match until Euro 2020.
But now they’re in their second final in a row. Can they get the job on Sunday against Spain, or will it be another heartbreak ahead of a pivotal World Cup in 2026?
Spain has struggled to find results in the wake of an unprecedented golden era from 2008 to 2012, but in this tournament, it has found a new identity and roared back to life. Rarely have La Roja’s games felt competitive, whereas England has looked as if it was actively trying to lose each game — and they’ve come close to “succeeding” in that dubious pursuit.
Spain got here after fighting back from an early French goal, featuring yet another goal from the tournament’s joint-leading scorer, Dani Olmo, and a wonder strike from 16-year-old prodigy Lamine Yamal. Meanwhile, England, as it tends to do, messily snuck by the Dutch with a controversial penalty and a generationally clutch late goal from super sub Ollie Watkins.
Will England finally play some quality football? Will they get by with another gritty win? Or will regression finally come and the late goals dry up, allowing Spain to win an unprecedented fourth European Championship?
Here’s a preview and prediction for Sunday’s match in Berlin, and how you can find some betting value.
Spain vs. England odds
- Moneyline: Spain +145 | Draw +180 | England +240
- To win the Cup: Spain -145 | England +115
- Total: Over 2.5 goals (+138) | Under 2.5 goals (-190)
Odds via BetMGM
Spain vs. England prediction
(3 p.m. ET, Fox Sports)
The oddsmakers had their hands full with this one. England’s team is more talented, Spain’s has played far better throughout this tournament, and both have seen plenty of betting support in the U.S. market. In the end, current form appears to have won out, and rightly so. In a knockout tournament, the hottest team is almost always the right bet, rather than the one with the deeper resume.
One quiet trend to keep an eye on is that after keeping three clean sheets throughout the group stage, Spain has yet to do so in a knockout match, allowing a goal in each one. That being said, it’s hard to knock them for falling behind in two of those three contests; England has done so in every knockout match on the way to the final.
As for total goalscoring, we’re not touching those numbers. There’s no clear strength in attack or defense between these two teams, both of which have been fairly balanced throughout the past month. This could end up featuring some quick-strike goals like in Spain’s match against France, or it could just as easily be a measured, cagey match decided by just a single moment of brilliance. Instead, let’s talk about who might score a goal.
Currently, six players are tied for the tournament lead with three goals scored. Two of those players are in the final, giving them a chance to pull ahead from the pack. One of those two is Harry Kane, England’s legendary striker who has the shortest anytime goalscorer odds of anyone in this game with a line of +190.
The other is Dani Olmo from Spain, who is tied with the 14th-shortest odds (+425) to put one in the net. It’s no lock that he does, but we have to think about investing at least a fraction of a unit on Olmo to continue his run of scoring in every knockout match.
Finally, let’s dig into which team might actually lift the trophy. One big question is whether Spain’s forwards can continue turning dangerous possession into goals at such an impressive rate; they’ve racked up 11.06 xG throughout this tournament and scored 13 total goals.
This can be explained by a good variety of players who can make a capable strike from anywhere in the attacking area; you can’t mark them all effectively at the same time. It could also be considered unsustainable. However, the question isn’t whether it can continue forever, just if La Roja can keep it going for another 90 minutes. The answer could very well be yes, especially against an England back line that has often played below its level of potential.
Back on England, if there’s one thing less sustainable than excellent finishing, it’s playing poorly for approximately 80 minutes and leveraging a few moments of brilliance to salvage a result. The Three Lions have all of the attacking talent they could ever hope for, but other than the rare instance of bringing on Watkins against the Netherlands, manager Gareth Southgate struggles to pull the proper strings to get the most out of his squad up top. As stacked as this team is, it has yet to score three goals in any game this tournament.
Put simply, a champion is rarely a squad that needs 95 minutes to get on the scoresheet against Slovakia, and even then, needs a wonder goal to do it. A champion does not wait for the opponent’s 75th-minute opener to wake up against Switzerland, and a penalty shootout to advance. And a champion surely doesn’t win its first game in a very friendly group before failing to win any of its next four in regulation.
The other shoe has to drop for the Three Lions at some point, as they’ve advanced via the finest of margins at every single stage. This is where it ends.
Best bet: Spain moneyline (+150, DraftKings)
Bets to consider: Dani Olmo anytime goalscorer (+425) | Spain to score first (-115)
