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Before the start of the 2024 European Championship, you probably wouldn’t have been surprised that Spain and France would meet in the semifinals. However, few would have guessed that France would be underdogs and that Les Bleus would have gotten this far without a single player scoring an open-play goal.
Indeed, Tuesday’s semifinal matchup is proving to be far less straightforward than one would have expected before the tournament, giving us a great opportunity as fans and bettors.
Les Bleus’ road to the final has been anything but smooth. They managed to finish second in Group A, behind Austria no less, before squeaking through a pair of knockout matches while scoring once, an own goal off of Belgium’s Jan Vertonghen in the 85th minute. They have as much attacking talent as any side in the world, but they’ve made little use of it on most occasions in this tournament.
The French defense, however, has been magnificent, allowing just a single goal through five games. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan is showing he’s one of the best in the world in his first major chance to represent his country, while William Saliba and Theo Hernández have formed as formidable of a left side as you’ll see.
As for La Roja, the big surprise has been how robust their attack has appeared. Seven different goal scorers have combined to find the back of the net 11 times, while three players have registered multiple assists, headlined by Lamine Yamal’s three.
With the iconic Allianz Arena providing a worthy setting for this clash of European titans, here’s what you can expect from these two teams with a spot in the final on the line.
Spain vs. France odds
- Moneyline: Spain +175 | Draw +185 | Uruguay +200
- To Advance: Spain -120 | France -105
- Total: Over 2.5 goals (+160) | Under 2.5 goals (-205)
Odds via DraftKings
Spain vs. France prediction
(3 p.m. ET, Fox Sports)
As the odds imply, this is an extremely tight matchup, one that could be decided by just a goal between teams that have combined to allow only three in this tournament. One interesting wrinkle is that just as the under is heavily favored for a goal-scoring total of 2.5, the over has the exact same odds if you pick a line of 1.5. This heavy inclination from the sportsbooks that there will be exactly two goals is worth noting as we move forward with making our picks.
One development to keep an eye on is the absence of veteran right back Dani Carvajal, who has put in some tremendous shifts in the tournament but is suspended after being sent off late against Germany. This means that a reserve right-back, presumably Jesús Navas, will be squaring off with Kylian Mbappé down the side of the pitch. Of course, the French captain has not been at his best this tournament, but that’s still an incredibly daunting assignment for any player, let alone one who has received limited minutes in this tournament.
Overall, it’s hard to imagine France’s complete attacking ineptitude continuing. This is a very similar group to the one that seemingly scored for fun at the 2022 World Cup, with one notable exception: Olivier Giroud is playing an extremely limited role. France’s all-time leading scorer played 45 total minutes during the group stage and hasn’t touched the pitch in the knockout stages. After a phenomenal link-up between the AC Milan man and Mbappé in Qatar, it’s time to inject a steady veteran into a side that could desperately use some classy finishing.
With that being said, even without Giroud returning to the lineup, it’s borderline impossible for France to keep doing what it’s been doing; positive regression simply must come. So far in this tournament, Les Bleus has created 12 big chances and missed all but Mbappé’s successful penalty kick against Poland, a rate that cannot possibly continue. Over that time, they’ve generated 8.08 expected goals — not a tremendous amount over a five-game span, but definitely an attack that should have scored more than three goals, a penalty and a pair of own-goals at that.
For some teams, the takeaway could be that finishers are needed, but for France, with seasoned attackers like Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, Marcus Thuram and Giroud (if he’s given the chance), the only logical conclusion is that the ball simply must arrive in the back of the net before long. As strong as Spain has been defensively, its back line is a relatively inexperienced one with Carvajal out, lacking players who have been in the biggest of spots. La Roja did allow a goal to Germany, the only world-class attack they’ve seen so far, making this a great opportunity for France’s finishers to get back on track.
On the other end, it’s hard to imagine Spain’s forwards maintaining such a consistent performance. Players like Dani Olmo and Nico Williams are having a great tournament, but it’s not clear that they can do it against France’s unreasonably strong defensive group, particularly the way Maignan is playing.
Spain vs. France pick
The books are probably right that it should be a low-scoring game, so let’s not bank on anything to happen within the space of 90 minutes. Instead, rely on France’s experience and Maignan’s dominance to see the team through a challenging match, even if it goes all the way to penalties.
If you want to bet on a moment of brilliance from a national hero, consider a first or last goal-scorer prop for Mbappé, who is +150 to score anytime but +450 for either first or last, providing much better value in a game that might not feature multiple goals.
- Best bet: France to advance (-105)
- Bets to consider: Under 1.5 goals (+160), Mbappé first goal-scorer (+450)
