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It’s hard to believe that the entire group stage as well as an entire round of knockout matches have already been completed, but we are in fact through to the Euro 2024 quarterfinals. The chalk largely won in the Round of 16, with plenty of favorites moving on, but all that means is that we still have plenty of big squads squaring off in the final eight.
This Friday, we’ll be treated to the first pair of matchups, which will feature four European teams who have won trophies in recent memory. Spain, who won the 2010 World Cup between Euros 2008 and 2012, will face off against 2014 World Cup winners Germany, while Euro 2016 winners Portugal and 2018 World Cup champions France will square off in the evening match.
That first match features a pair of teams that have, in recent tournaments, suffered from the same fatal flaw; lack of end product. Spain dominated Italy for much of their Euro 2020 semifinal matchup without truly breaking them down for the win, while Germany famously crashed out of the 2022 World Cup group stage despite plenty of possession and chance creation.
This tournament, both squads seem to have it figured out, at least thus far, and since the first matchday, have been viewed as top contenders to win it all. At least, that’s the narrative- let’s see if the numbers suggest the same. First, let’s check out Germany. The numbers look great; they’re possessing at a 66% rate, which they’ve turned into 12 big chances, 7.69 xG, and 10 goals on the scoresheet. Nothing to complain about- in fact a few instances of great chance maximization along the way.
As for Spain, the story is a bit more complicated. It’s certainly a rosier picture than we’ve seen recently, with 59.5% possession- against mostly very solid squads- yielding 8.9 xG and 9 actual goals. However, they’ve created 17 big chances, meaning that those 9 goals represent a conversion rate nowhere close to Germany’s.
Both of these teams are talented, deep, and coached well- it just doesn’t seem like they’ve figured out their finishing problems to equal extents. Simply put, we must trust the finishing ability of Jamal Musiala over Alvaro Morata, or frankly anyone else Spain can put up top. There may not be a huge volume of chances in this game, which could largely be fought in the midfield, but Germany should do a better job of taking advantage of theirs, and move on.
When it comes to the clash between France and Portugal, we’re looking at teams with opposite issues. Portugal need to move on from the past; it’s tough to bench a team captain, especially one as talismanic as the great Cristiano Ronaldo, but between the 2022 World Cup and this tournament, it’s clear he’s past his prime, especially as he is no longer competing at the highest level during the club season.
On the other side of the touchline is a manager who needs to embrace what has already been proven to work. In this tournament, France has generally employed a sole striker, and Olivier Giroud, the nation’s all-time leading goalscorer, has yet to make a start. Meanwhile, in the 2022 World Cup, Giroud started up top just about every match, and his link-up with Kylian Mbappé yielded great results.
It’s worth noting that Giroud hasn’t slowed down just yet- his 15 goals in league play for AC Milan this season were his most since 2015-16 with Arsenal. With varying results from the players on the wing, it’s time for Didier Deschamps to create the attacking trio of dual strikers Mbappé and Giroud with the perpetually-underrated Antoine Griezmann as a central attacking midfielder.
Of course, these teams have both gotten this far, even though France have done so without any one of their players scoring a single goal from open play (two own goals, one penalty kick), so it’s not likely that they’ll change much. So who will be hurt most by the inertia? It’s got to be Portugal, who will continue to waste opportunities and field position as long as their attack centers around the venerable Ronaldo.
As disappointing as the finishing has been at times, France has been remarkably strong defensively, allowing just one goal thus far, a penalty from Robert Lewandowski- which was initially saved by Mike Maignan, before a controversial re-kick was awarded. It takes an attack at its very best to break down this French back line, and with Ronaldo in the lineup, Portugal won’t have that. They’re nothing special on the other end either; expect France’s front line to find its finishing boots just long enough to win this one in regulation.
Best bets: Germany to advance (-108, FanDuel), France ML (+140, DraftKings)
