Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is still more than a week away, but we’ve been busy scouring all the betting lines for the big game.
When you get past all the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce silly will-they-or-won’t betting props, there are some other wagers more worthy of your time and money.
We’ve already placed two bets, taking advantage of early lines that seem off at the moment.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the second half of the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, in Baltimore, Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024
Super Bowl 58 Best Bets
Spread Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
The line for the game opened with the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites, then dropped to as low as 1.5 within the first 12 hours at most sportsbooks, then reversed course again, back to its current 2.5 points in favor of San Francisco.
We would have taken the Chiefs at +1.5; we heart it even more now that it has moved back to its opening spread.
There are certain quarterbacks you don’t doubt (or bet against) in big games. It’s a short list: Montana, Aikman, Brady … and Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers haven’t exactly been a juggernaut in the playoffs. They got outplayed by Jordan Love and should have lost their divisional game to Green Bay. And last Sunday, in the NFC title game, they needed a second-half rally – fueled by some questionable play-calling by Dan Campbell – to beat the Lions.
If you’re still doubting Mahomes after what he’s done in these playoffs, going on the road as an underdog and finding his way to the Super Bowl (again!), then maybe these two stats will convince you otherwise:
- The Chiefs are 10-1-1 against the spread when a Mahomes-led team of theirs opens as an underdog.
- Underdogs in the Super Bowl are 13-7 against the spread over the last 20 seasons.
Bookmakers didn’t know what to do with Mahomes in his first Super Bowl, against the 49ers, four years ago. They opened the game as a pick’em … the Chiefs won by 11.
Who knows, maybe Brock Purdy will add his name one day to that very short list, but for now, this is a mismatch we’re willing to bet on. Take Mahomes, the Chiefs and the points.
Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey (+450 at BetMGM)
We know what you’re thinking: How can McCaffrey possibly win MVP if the Chiefs win the game?
Two things here: The Chiefs don’t have to win the game for our first bet to come through; they just need to keep it tight in a loss. Secondly, yes, this is a hedge, and CMC’s odds to take home the MVP hardware are too good to pass up.
It’s difficult to see McCaffrey not playing a significant role in what would be an expected 49ers victory, per the 2.5-point spread.
History isn’t necessarily on his side since no running back has won the award in the 23 seasons the NFL has allowed fans to have a 20 percent vote. In that time, 14 have been quarterbacks (60.9%), five wide receivers (21.8%) and the remaining four played defense (17.4%) – three of them linebackers.
While Mahomes (+125) and Purdy (+220) have better odds, the value lies with McCaffrey (+450), who has four touchdowns in the playoffs and 25 in 18 games played this season.
While the Chiefs held the Ravens to 81 rushing yards on Sunday, Baltimore was forced to pass in the second half after falling behind early.
The Chiefs can be run on; before the Ravens were held to just 81 rushing yards in the AFC Championship (they were throwing in the second half after falling behind early), Kansas City gave up 180 rushing yards to Buffalo in the divisional round, which reflected more closely what they were surrendering on the ground during the regular season.
McCaffrey is as much a receiver as he is a running back, and the fact he does both equally well gives him two paths to the game’s top honor.
Plus, CMC for MVP has a nice ring to it.
