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Could a big series win against the rival Cardinals launch the Cubs into a playoff push down the stretch? Well, if they can keep up the pace they set against St. Louis, as they won three of four games, they’d finish the regular season with 91 wins, enough to have them in the mix for a playoff spot.
Of course, it’s much harder to sustain success over two months than one weekend, but every winning streak starts with just one game. The Cubs’ next one will be at home against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are 4.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, but they’re in the second wild-card spot.
The Cubs, in turn, have escaped last place in the NL Central, but are still six games away from a wild-card spot, a deficit that is looking less and less surmountable. They’ll look to keep their modest run of good form going against a considerably tougher opponent; Minnesota has won four in a row, although three were against the hapless White Sox.
Twins vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Twins -118 | Cubs +100
- Run Line: Twins -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-170)
- Total: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Odds via FanDuel
Twins vs. Cubs prediction
The first thing that jumps out from these odds is the total, which will be where we make our best bet. Let’s start by looking at Minnesota’s half of the innings. The Twins lineup is top-6 in both OPS and runs scored, and will be going up against a highly embattled Kyle Hendricks. After tossing a shocking gem just before the All Star break, he’s been back to his previous form; he’s allowed 12 earned runs in his past 15 innings pitched.
On the other side of things, the Cubs are below-average by just about every offensive metric, but their task is arguably just as easy as Minnesota’s. They’ll be facing David Festa, who is just four games into his MLB career, including three starts. He’s had a rough go of it so far with an ERA just below 7.00 and a WHIP to match, so it’s clear to see that the learning curve has been pretty steep thus far.
The bottom line is that, given the starting pitching matchup, it’s almost impossible to understand how the run total is as low as a flat 8. Hendricks is fading out as an MLB-level pitcher, while Festa is in an opposite, yet effectively similar, end of the spectrum as he’s very much still figuring out how to contribute at the big league level.
Twins vs. Cubs pick
The Cubs have scored at least four runs in five consecutive games, and the Twins have done so in each of their past four. These lineups are both in a good spot, and they’re facing arms against which they can have some success. Neither one features a significant platoon split, nor does either starting pitcher; expect plenty of opportunities to score runs in this one, which should be a very fun contest.
Pick: Over 8 runs (-115)
