| Commercial Content. 21+. Action Network is the official betting partner of the Chicago Tribune.
After a shock loss to Panama, the US Men’s National Team has one more group-stage game to salvage qualification to the Copa America quarterfinals.
It’s worth noting that the team’s fate isn’t entirely in its hands; a win might not necessarily be enough, in in some scenarios, a close loss or a draw could be enough to move on to the next round. Still, a win would go a long way, and for coach Gregg Berhalter, his job could be on the line based on Monday night’s result against Uruguay.
Uruguay is viewed as one of the top contenders to win the entire tournament, a notion strengthened by middling performances from Argentina and especially Brazil so far.
After a 5-0 win over Bolivia, Uruguay is in a great position to make it to the knockout stage, but the team’s qualification isn’t quite mathematically secured. It’ll want to win, and should certainly be playing their top squad, at least to start.
Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium should provide a great homefield advantage for the tournament hosts. Let’s take a look at some of the key factors in Monday’s match and discuss how the game might play out.
USA vs. Uruguay odds
- Moneyline: USA +145 | Draw +230 | Uruguay +195
- Total: Over 2.5 goals: +110 | Under 2.5 goals: -140
Odds via DraftKings
USA vs. Uruguay prediction
(9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports)
After turning a dominant performance against Bolivia into just a 2-0 win, not nearly enough to pad goal differential the way the team would have liked, the United States put in one of the worst performances of the Berhalter era against Panama.
Yes, the Americans were knocked down to 10 men after a shocking 18th-minute red card for Timothy Weah, but that hardly excuses their 26% possession rate throughout the match.
Of course, it could’ve been a less-painful draw if not for a terrible gaffe by goalkeeper Ethan Horvath, after top option Matt Turner exited injured. It’s not clear who will be in the net for the Uruguay match, a situation that most certainly merits monitoring.
As for Uruguay, things are going as well as possible heading into this match. La Celeste let Panama hang around a bit, but a late flurry turned a game that was 1-0 past the 80th minute into a 3-1 win, ahead of its domination of Bolivia. Now, all Uruguay needs to secure qualification is a draw, while a win would clinch the group’s top spot.
The main man for Uruguay has been Darwin Núñez, who appears to have taken up the mantle as the next great striker for his nation. With Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani’s days over, Núñez has stepped up in a big way. While he’s always flashed high talent, he’s now showing the consistency he has failed to display at Liverpool, with a seven-match scoring streak, which has included 10 total goals.
The United States midfield does not seem to have the edge it did during the 2022 World Cup, when the group consistently outclassed the opposition, most notably in a match against England’s highly-touted squad.
Yunus Musah hasn’t been given much of a chance, and while Gio Reyna has been fantastic, he hasn’t had a consistent enough of a role as he continues to struggle to establish himself under Berhalter. In fact, over the past 10 matches, the U.S. has scored 19 times with Reyna on the pitch, conceding six over that time, while the Americans haven’t scored once with him on the bench, having allowed eight goals over those minutes.
It’s hard to imagine them finding the grit needed to get a vital result against a team as talented and tough as Uruguay. Folarin Balogun does appear to be the striker upgrade that has been so clearly needed for years, but he has yet to show finishing consistency on the biggest stages against top opposition. He might not be given enough scoring opportunities, given Uruguay’s ability to control the ball.
USA vs. Uruguay best bets
It’s key to recognize that sportsbooks are a bit higher on the United States than the public seems to be. This probably won’t be a win for the USA, but given the stakes for the two teams, there could be a motivation gap of sorts.
A draw is very possible, but given its strong form, Uruguay could pull it out in a low-scoring contest in which Núñez finds the net and the United States simply cannot.
- Best bet: Uruguay Draw No Bet (+105)
- Bets to consider: Under 2.5 goals (-140), Uruguay 1-0 USA exact score (+600)
