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The Wrigley Field faithful who waited out Tuesday’s rain delay were rewarded, as the Cubs rallied from five runs down to hand the White Sox a 12th-consecutive defeat.
On Wednesday night, the White Sox are heavy underdogs again, as veteran right-handers Erick Fedde (3.12 ERA, 69 1/3 innings) and Jameson Taillon (2.84 ERA, 44 1/3 innings) face off in the series finale.
Here is a betting preview for the game.
White Sox vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: White Sox + 155, Cubs -190
- Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-120), Cubs -1.5 (+100)
- Total: Over 9 (-120), Under 9 (+100)
Odds via BetMGM
White Sox vs. Cubs prediction
It would be hard to write a much more painful loss for the White Sox than what they experienced on Tuesday, but there were some clear positives that came out of the game.
They hung six runs in a game versus one of the NL’s best pitchers (Shōta Imanaga), including a 448-foot home-run from Luis Robert in his first game played since April 5.
The White Sox own the 29th-ranked wRC+ of 74 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .608. Having Robert back raises their upside considerably.
One Sox batter who appears well-situated to do damage in Wednesday’s matchup is Gavin Sheets, who has slugged .416 versus righties this season with an OPS of .776 and owns a line-drive rate of 23.4% against righties.
Over his last 20 at-bats, Sheets owns a 41% hard-hit rate, including three barrels, and has greatly underachieved his .294 xBA. He has seen 4.86 pitches per plate appearance over the last two weeks, which is tied for the highest mark in the American League in that span.
With a 3.56 xERA and a 4.47 xFIP, Taillon appears to be a lesser pitcher than his 2.84 ERA suggests. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 89 and Pitching+ rating of 104, which are equal to his numbers last season when he posted a 4.84 ERA.
Left-handed batters have slugged .452 versus Taillon, which is a considerable improvement from last season when lefties slugged .514. Since the start of last season, left-handed batters own a 46% hard-hit rate against him.
Fedde pitched to a 3.63 ERA across six starts in May, and that does appear to be a fair take on his current level. He owns a 3.43 xERA and has allowed .247 xBA over his last six starts. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Location+ rating of 104 entering this matchup.
The Cubs’ will provide a solid test for Fedde, as they have hit to a wRC+ of 102 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
White Sox vs. Cubs pick
It seems unlikely that Taillon’s ERA won’t balloon some the rest of the way, and the White Sox should manage some hard contact in Wednesday night’s game. I’m not quite ready to back them at +155, but the Cubs definitely don’t look appealing at -190 in this matchup either.
There does look to be value backing Sheets to do some damage in this favorable matchup. He is priced at +125 to record more than 1.5 total bases, and I would play that down to +115.
Best bet: Gavin Sheets over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
